Weekend Update #239
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The stock market ended the week with strong momentum as the S&P 500 rose for a fifth straight day, closing at an all-time high of 6,388, fueled by solid earnings and optimism around U.S. trade deals. So far, more than 80% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded profit estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, putting this earnings season on track for the highest share of beats since the second quarter of 2021. Contributing to market euphoria, meme stocks surged this week with popular names like Opendoor, Kohl’s, GoPro, and Krispy Kreme all seeing dramatic rallies as retail investors piled in to spark some of the strongest meme-stock activity since 2021.
Against this backdrop of market optimism, the Trump Administration unveiled its AI Action Plan, aiming to boost U.S. leadership in artificial intelligence by cutting regulations, fast-tracking infrastructure development, promoting ideologically neutral models, expanding the workforce, and strengthening national and global AI competitiveness.
Turning to the labor market, initial weekly U.S. jobless claims for last week fell for the eighth consecutive week to about 217,000, marking the lowest level since mid‑April; however, continuing claims edged up slightly to around 1.955 million, suggesting some cooling beneath the surface.
Meanwhile, the housing market showed signs of strain as existing U.S. home sales dropped 2.7% month-over-month in June 2025 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 3.93 million units, hitting the lowest level since September 2024 as high mortgage rates and record home prices continue to sideline buyers, weighing on the sector.
On the trade front, the Trump administration announced a preliminary deal with Japan that trims U.S. tariffs on Japanese auto exports from 25% to 15%, coupled with a $550 billion Japanese investment package into the U.S., including key sectors such as semiconductors, energy, and agriculture. Additionally, negotiations between the U.S. and European Union are reportedly close to reaching an agreement that would set a 15% baseline tariff for EU exports, offering a path to ease trade tensions.
Looking ahead, Monday kicks off the busiest week of earnings season with over 40% of S&P 500 companies expected to report results. Among the highlights will be several megacaps including Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta. Next week will also bring the latest jobs report, the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, and a critical deadline for U.S. trade deals.
Friday’s Close (Weekly Performance)
S&P 500 6,388.64 (+1.46%)
Nasdaq 21,108.32 (+1.02%)
Dow Jones 44,901.92 (+0.47%)
Thank you Blue Room Senior Analyst NICK PEART.
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